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@ManifoldPolitics will this be resolved according to the Senate package vote?

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1182/vote_118_2_00154.htm

@CharlieBauer According to this Tim Scott voted for cloture which the description says still counts even though he didn't vote for the passage of the bill

@Arky @Joshua This counts right? Looks like Tim Scott resolved to NO on the other market which I think was a mistake unless I’m misunderstanding how Senate procedures work (very possible)

@Arky Oh, yes my mistake! Will re-resolve

@Joshua Same for Welch as well

@Joshua Did not vote does not mean it’s a YES vote. By the question in the title, these senators did not vote to pass the ban on TikTok.

@NFL Welch and Scott both voted for cloture, and Welch voted NO on the final bill while Scott did not vote at all on the final bill.:

Per the description:

If there is at least one such vote, then any senator who votes Yes resolves YES and any Senator who has not voted Yes before July 1st resolves NO on July 1st.

This includes votes for passage of the bill or for cloture. If a senator votes in favor on one vote but against on another vote, they will still count here. If multiple versions of a TikTok ban/sale bill are voted on before July 1st, any votes on any of these bills will count for this market.

So Welch and Scott both resolve YES.

@ManifoldPolitics I realized this for Welch which is why I didn't touch him, but yep missed for Scott, and this resolution is correct. Nevertheless, I think that's a weird provision to include in the rules and would be missed by a lot of people. I can't think of any reason to include it, when it's the final vote that actually matters, so I'd recommend not including it if you do these markets in the future.

@mint Yeah that's reasonable, I think I would alter that provision in the future.

@ManifoldPolitics It's very disappointing to say the least and, I would wager to say, against the spirit of the market

The description says July 1st but it’s already closed :(

Good market. I wanted to make this one but thought putting all the Senators would be too expensive, lol. If anyone is interested I have a market for the number of Senators who voted for the bill, also conditional on the vote happening. Maybe some arbitrage oppertunity:

And now, the unconditional version:

I'm setting the default sort to Low %, because finding senators opposed to the ban is the most important question here. But if you set the sort to Old then you'll see all the democrats first and then al the republicans, sorted alphabetically by state.

certainly the lobbyists would go to Bob first.