This is a companion to this market, but unconditional.
This market asks which Senators will vote for any Senate bill which is broadly similar to the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act", before 2025.
Any senator who votes Yes resolves YES and any Senator who has not voted Yes before 2025 resolves NO on January 1st, 2025. This includes if there is no vote.
This includes votes for passage of the bill or for cloture. If a senator votes in favor on one vote but against on another vote, they will still count here. If multiple versions of a TikTok ban/sale bill are voted on before 2025, any votes on any of these bills will count for this market.
What counts as as TikTok Ban/Sale bill?
Well, the House bill is intended to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or else face a ban. Specifically, if TikTok was not sold within 6 months the House bill would attempt to ban it by forbidding app stores or web hosting companies from allowing users to download or update the app.
The Senate may pass a bill which is not exactly the same as the House bill, but if it is also attempting to force the sale of TikTok by threatening a ban it will still count for this market.
Note that the exact details of these resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the market. Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
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🏅 Top traders
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| 5 | Ṁ222 |
Ah, it looks like Tim Scott and Peter Welch voted for Cloture, despite not voting for the final bill! Per the description, I am re-resolving them to YES.
@ManifoldPolitics Will the YES resolve now?
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1182/vote_118_2_00154.htm
Since the TikTok Ban Bill is merged with the Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan funding, at least 10 senators should be expected to vote no. Sanders, Welch, Wyden, Merkley, and Warren are possible Democrat holdouts. Republicans JD Vance and Ron Johnson can’t possibly vote for Ukraine funding, right?