Conditional on a vote, which US Senators will vote to pass a TikTok Ban or Forced Sale bill before July?
60
634
Ṁ12k
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
NO
Jeff Merkley - D, Oregon
Resolved
NO
Bernie Sanders - I, Vermont
Resolved
NO
Tommy Tuberville - R, Alabama
Resolved
NO
Marco Rubio - R, Florida
Resolved
NO
Rick Scott - R, Florida
Resolved
NO
Mike Braun - R, Indiana
Resolved
NO
Roger Marshall - R, Kansas
Resolved
NO
Rand Paul - R, Kentucky
Resolved
NO
Josh Hawley - R, Missouri
Resolved
NO
Eric Schmitt - R, Missouri
Resolved
NO
Ted Budd - R, North Carolina
Resolved
NO
J. D. Vance - R, Ohio
Resolved
NO
Marsha Blackburn - R, Tennessee
Resolved
NO
Bill Hagerty - R, Tennessee
Resolved
NO
Ted Cruz - R, Texas
Resolved
NO
Mike Lee - R, Utah
Resolved
NO
Ron Johnson - R, Wisconsin
Resolved
NO
John Barrasso - R, Wyoming
Resolved
NO
Cynthia Lummis - R, Wyoming
Resolved
YES
Tim Scott - R, South Carolina

This market asks which Senators will vote for any Senate bill which is broadly similar to the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act".

If there is no Senate vote on a TikTok Ban/Sale bill before July 1st 2024, all options in this market resolve N/A.

If there is at least one such vote, then any senator who votes Yes resolves YES and any Senator who has not voted Yes before July 1st resolves NO on July 1st.

This includes votes for passage of the bill or for cloture. If a senator votes in favor on one vote but against on another vote, they will still count here. If multiple versions of a TikTok ban/sale bill are voted on before July 1st, any votes on any of these bills will count for this market.

What counts as as TikTok Ban/Sale bill?

Well, the House bill is intended to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or else face a ban. Specifically, if TikTok was not sold within 6 months the House bill would attempt to ban it by forbidding app stores or web hosting companies from allowing users to download or update the app.

The Senate may pass a bill which is not exactly the same as the House bill, but if it is also attempting to force the sale of TikTok by threatening a ban it will still count for this market.

Note that the exact details of these resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the market. Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.

You can find an unconditional version of the market here.

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bought Ṁ17 Tim Scott - R, South... NO
bought Ṁ150 Tim Scott - R, South... YES

@CharlieBauer According to this Tim Scott voted for cloture which the description says still counts even though he didn't vote for the passage of the bill

bought Ṁ35 Answer #59b3f7f2cb58 YES

@Arky @Joshua This counts right? Looks like Tim Scott resolved to NO on the other market which I think was a mistake unless I’m misunderstanding how Senate procedures work (very possible)

@Arky Oh, yes my mistake! Will re-resolve

bought Ṁ300 Answer #59b3f7f2cb58 YES

@Joshua Same for Welch as well

@Joshua Did not vote does not mean it’s a YES vote. By the question in the title, these senators did not vote to pass the ban on TikTok.

@NFL Welch and Scott both voted for cloture, and Welch voted NO on the final bill while Scott did not vote at all on the final bill.:

Per the description:

If there is at least one such vote, then any senator who votes Yes resolves YES and any Senator who has not voted Yes before July 1st resolves NO on July 1st.

This includes votes for passage of the bill or for cloture. If a senator votes in favor on one vote but against on another vote, they will still count here. If multiple versions of a TikTok ban/sale bill are voted on before July 1st, any votes on any of these bills will count for this market.

So Welch and Scott both resolve YES.

@ManifoldPolitics I realized this for Welch which is why I didn't touch him, but yep missed for Scott, and this resolution is correct. Nevertheless, I think that's a weird provision to include in the rules and would be missed by a lot of people. I can't think of any reason to include it, when it's the final vote that actually matters, so I'd recommend not including it if you do these markets in the future.

@mint Yeah that's reasonable, I think I would alter that provision in the future.

@ManifoldPolitics It's very disappointing to say the least and, I would wager to say, against the spirit of the market

The description says July 1st but it’s already closed :(

Good market. I wanted to make this one but thought putting all the Senators would be too expensive, lol. If anyone is interested I have a market for the number of Senators who voted for the bill, also conditional on the vote happening. Maybe some arbitrage oppertunity:

And now, the unconditional version:

I'm setting the default sort to Low %, because finding senators opposed to the ban is the most important question here. But if you set the sort to Old then you'll see all the democrats first and then al the republicans, sorted alphabetically by state.

bought Ṁ5 Answer #8b1ba09e789a NO

certainly the lobbyists would go to Bob first.

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