This market asks which Senators will vote for any Senate bill which is broadly similar to the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act".

If there is no Senate vote on a TikTok Ban/Sale bill before July 1st 2024, all options in this market resolve N/A.

If there is at least one such vote, then any senator who votes Yes resolves YES and any Senator who has not voted Yes before July 1st resolves NO on July 1st.

This includes votes for passage of the bill or for cloture. If a senator votes in favor on one vote but against on another vote, they will still count here. If multiple versions of a TikTok ban/sale bill are voted on before July 1st, any votes on any of these bills will count for this market.

What counts as as TikTok Ban/Sale bill?

Well, the House bill is intended to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or else face a ban. Specifically, if TikTok was not sold within 6 months the House bill would attempt to ban it by forbidding app stores or web hosting companies from allowing users to download or update the app.

The Senate may pass a bill which is not exactly the same as the House bill, but if it is also attempting to force the sale of TikTok by threatening a ban it will still count for this market.

Note that the exact details of these resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the market. Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.

You can find an unconditional version of the market here.