Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership by this month?
53
1.7kṀ26k
2027
98.6%
Feb 2025
98.1%
Mar 2025
98%
Apr 2025
98.4%
May 2025
98.4%
Jun 2025
98.6%
July 2025
98.6%
Aug 2025
98.5%
Sep 2025

This market resolves when Tiktok has either been banned in the US, or has changed ownership

Example of what counts as banned in the US:
Tiktok app no long appears on US ios app store

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES2mo

Should this resolve YES? Description indicates that all Markets resolve at the same time as soon as TikTok is meaningfully banned, without mentioning duration.

2mo

@AmmonLam These should all be resolved yes.

8mo

@AmmonLam A bunch of these can resolve.

8mo

@mods April, May, and June can resolve and make me a paid creator and I'll resolve things in a timely manner...

bought Ṁ2,000 NO10mo

@AmmonLam April and May can resolve as NO, thank you!

bought Ṁ10 NO1y

clarifying, a bill passing which lays out conditions under which tiktok would be banned does not in itself count as a ban, right? the app would actually have to be banned from the app stores?

1y
bought Ṁ10 NO1y

@AmmonLam thanks for the clarification, in that case i’m betting this down since i expect a long time in between the bill passing and the ban actually being instated

1y

@turtlepurple added more answers with a longer horizon so you can bet accordingly

@AmmonLam thank you! wait, will any of these individual months resolve NO before the market as a whole expires? (wondering because cash flow constrained)

1y

@turtlepurple once each month ended I would resolve it

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules