@ManifoldPolitics @mods the linked market has resolved

Womp womp

Arbitrage opportunity with this:
https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Why are the subsidies so low in these official but secondary Presidential election markets?

Can't bet size on Pennsylvania, etc.

Give me a break you guys. I swear the Democrats could nominate a gorilla to run for president and liberals would proudly declare their candidate was "now leading in polls" ...of course they are.

Biden was losing in the same polls Kamala is now winning in. Polls are directly relevant to the election, so I'm not sure I understand what the complaint here is.

Manifold is in a Democrat bubble so the market is going to skew their direction

I mean, we're doing what prediction markets encourage: putting our money/mana where our mouths are.

It either resolves YES or NO; you're either pregnant or you're not. If you like buying NO shares, it benefits you for the percentage to go up because you can buy NO shares at a cheaper rate.

If you think YES holders are wrong, you can funnel more mana against them to profit off of them and prove a point.

Be mindful though. Buying shares should be indicative of what you think will happen, not of what you want to happen.

If you think it skews Democrat, then bet on Republicans for free mana!

No

I stand with Kamala.

Why?

Because I don't like Trump and she is the only other reasonable choice.

Kamala is an Alex Soros puppet.

Prove it.

related (no endorsement, no month restriction)

/strutheo/if-joe-biden-drops-out-in-favor-of