If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?
➕
Plus
96
Ṁ18k
2026
1.9%
chance

What counts:

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

    Related:

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@ManifoldPolitics Is there a reason this is closed? I see no reason this couldn't remain open so that people can sell out / assess the probability of prison going forward.

@BoltonBailey this was probably a mistake. I've reopened the market.

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