Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party). If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2027. Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count. Resolves once the Q4 2027 advance estimate is out.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.