Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2029 or 2030. Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count. Resolves once the Q4 2030 advance estimate is out.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.