Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?

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Tags: #ManticMarkets Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets

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What's the user growth plan?

predicted YES

@DanForootan https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-0e6313ee22ee

predicted NO

1M in revenues would mean 100M M$ in circulation or 273k M$ in new tokens bought per day. At the end of today, the biggest question in 24h volume was whether Trump would be the president at the end of July 2022. It has 2 days and $11.5k M$ in outstanding bets (let's make it simple and think it's 6.5k M$ in volume per day). Therefore, it would require 42 questions like today's largest question for MM to run-rate a day in 1M M$. In my view, a bet would easily need much more than 6.5k M$ to have some forecasting value. With 100 questions with $10k M$ in volume you easily get into $1M M$ in net new tokens. It seems kinda feasible, in my view to run-rate at $1M revenue during a week, for example. Keeping my NOs, although 8% seems fairly valued.

Fascinating! https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Finances-0f9a14a16afe4375b67e21471ce456b0

Expecting this to drift lower now the seed funding round is closed.

I don't think you or investors are going to be heavily revenue focused in 2022. It is better long term to find your groove than milk the cow.

Here's how. We 100x our user base by November. Then two months of decent monetization.

Where would the revenue come from? I don't understand why the probability is anywhere near 30%. Has any prediction market ever made $1M revenue in any nine month period ever?

- Cumulative revenue (all revenue since we began working on this), up til Dec 31 2022. - Exclusive of grants and investments - We've taken in ~$2k to date in user payments

By start of 2023 or by close of 2023? Cumulative or yearly revenue?

How can we assess your ability to make revenue?

M$ are worth more if this is true.

No way.

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