Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?
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Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets
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1M in revenues would mean 100M M$ in circulation or 273k M$ in new tokens bought per day. At the end of today, the biggest question in 24h volume was whether Trump would be the president at the end of July 2022. It has 2 days and $11.5k M$ in outstanding bets (let's make it simple and think it's 6.5k M$ in volume per day). Therefore, it would require 42 questions like today's largest question for MM to run-rate a day in 1M M$. In my view, a bet would easily need much more than 6.5k M$ to have some forecasting value. With 100 questions with $10k M$ in volume you easily get into $1M M$ in net new tokens. It seems kinda feasible, in my view to run-rate at $1M revenue during a week, for example. Keeping my NOs, although 8% seems fairly valued.
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