Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?

108

845

Ṁ12K

Ṁ582

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

Tags: #ManticMarkets Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ154
2		Ṁ106
3		Ṁ88
4		Ṁ78
5		Ṁ73

13 Comments

75 Holders

468 Trades

Sort by:

What's the user growth plan?

predicted YES

@DanForootan https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-0e6313ee22ee

predicted NO

1M in revenues would mean 100M M$ in circulation or 273k M$ in new tokens bought per day. At the end of today, the biggest question in 24h volume was whether Trump would be the president at the end of July 2022. It has 2 days and $11.5k M$ in outstanding bets (let's make it simple and think it's 6.5k M$ in volume per day). Therefore, it would require 42 questions like today's largest question for MM to run-rate a day in 1M M$. In my view, a bet would easily need much more than 6.5k M$ to have some forecasting value. With 100 questions with $10k M$ in volume you easily get into $1M M$ in net new tokens. It seems kinda feasible, in my view to run-rate at $1M revenue during a week, for example. Keeping my NOs, although 8% seems fairly valued.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Fascinating! https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Finances-0f9a14a16afe4375b67e21471ce456b0

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Expecting this to drift lower now the seed funding round is closed.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I don't think you or investors are going to be heavily revenue focused in 2022. It is better long term to find your groove than milk the cow.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Here's how. We 100x our user base by November. Then two months of decent monetization.

bought Ṁ250 of NO

Where would the revenue come from? I don't understand why the probability is anywhere near 30%. Has any prediction market ever made $1M revenue in any nine month period ever?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

- Cumulative revenue (all revenue since we began working on this), up til Dec 31 2022. - Exclusive of grants and investments - We've taken in ~$2k to date in user payments