Will AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials in 2022? | Manifold

Will AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials in 2022?

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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

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https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics#:~:text=AI%20will%20discover%20a%20new%20drug%20%E2%80%94%20or%20an%20old%20drug%20fit%20for%20new%20purposes%20%E2%80%94%20that%E2%80%99s%20promising%20enough%20for%20clinical%20trials%20(85%20percent)%20%E2%80%94%20RIGHT

https://www.forbes.com/sites/calumchace/2022/02/25/first-wholly-ai-developed-drug-enters-phase-1-trials/

There's already been two discovered in 2021 according to Vox Future Perfect, and given DeepMind is entering the area, I think the market is underpricing this.

I'm a bit confused by this, because I could sworn a few machine learning methods had already uncovered some candidates. Does it have to be AI designed, not an ML improvement to docking search methods?

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