{'message': 'This market can take on at most M$0.00 more long exposure right now, but this trade adds M$480.86 (margin × leverage). Reduce your margin or leverage so their product fits, or wait for more short interest to raise the cap (long exposure is limited to 10× the unreserved short-side pool, plus the notional the short side already has at risk).'}

I had just closed my short :(

@JasonMendoza2008 ok I guess the issue is that there is literally no liquidity left in the liquidity pool

rip, my predictor classified HY4 as closed. i should have noticed the discrepancy in previous days

Weird that there's only 64k in notional capacity for shorts when there's 293k for longs

@Gen I believe GLM-5.3 is being counted as closed when it should be counted as open.


(Also possible that GLM-5.3-Flash is being counted as closed but probably not)

Seems like this was fixed

fuuuuck I woke up today with a nice profit being built told myself Id come back and cash it out later but I got liquidated

selling next-day predictor for auction, starting at 10k

@vi

👀

@JasonMendoza2008 yea im stupid i mistook offset for delta and also forgot to check on my clarification prompt

@vi Also [redacted]

@Gen am I getting rekt because you're counting ox-alpha as OPEN?

@JasonMendoza2008 it's clearly clearly clearly not open (if it is, tell me where to download the weights :D). I feel scammed right now ngl

@JasonMendoza2008

@JasonMendoza2008 uhh, maybe Haiku wasn't the right bot for the job ...

@Gen ... did you change something?

@Stralor I've been robbed!

@JasonMendoza2008 there's no winning for poor gen. either it was mislabelled unfairly or the equation changed suddenly rugpulling those who correctly guessed ox would end up counting here

@Stralor who guessed ox would be open? That’d be a pretty unlikely guess, wouldn’t it? Like it’s not even ambiguous aha

@Gen will you refund the mana my bot lost by getting liquidated? 🥰🥰

@Gen FWIW Gemini 3.7 is cheap and does it really well

@JasonMendoza2008 stealth models are provided for free, which may make openrouter's backend count them as open. I sure made that bet and it was winning until the crazy change here liquidated my 2k margin

@Stralor well manifold says open-weight i.e. we should be able to download the weights right. Quoting manifold:

// THE TEST: are the weights downloadable by the public?

// downloadable -> open. API-only -> closed.

// Deliberately NOT "open source": that invites license-purity arguments

// (Llama's licence isn't OSI-approved but the weights are right there).

// Downloadability is binary and anyone can check it in thirty seconds, which

@Stralor it’s manifold which classifies the models, not openrouter

@Stralor Someone uploaded a fake weights repo for ox-alpha and our auto-classifier flagged it as open.

From claude:

The repo is brokenshards/ox-alpha, created Aug 21. Twenty files named like weight shards, a config claiming 800B parameters, and a README reading "real ox alpha dataset npnp" — the whole thing assembled in 24 seconds. It isn't weights.

It passes our automated check, which asks whether the repo exists with weight files in it and whether its name matches the model. A repo named ox-alpha full of .safetensors passes both.

My intention is to change the classifier to require the repo to be owned by the model's actual publisher. That would have prevented this

@Gen did you ignore my comment purposely lmao https://manifold.markets/Manifold/openweight-ai-token-share-on-openro#spzg4wexkyo

@Gen why would manifold make that determination? openrouter already sorts them. kinda weird to make local changes to what the oracle says

@Stralor I mean if it’s documented it’s fine as long as manifold does it well

@JasonMendoza2008 yeah. perps are already opaque but this market is basically a black box. you can't follow the oracle link and immediately figure out what's going on. now there's all this. I'm outta here

@Stralor agreed that’s why I asked below about db access to everyone https://manifold.markets/Manifold/openweight-ai-token-share-on-openro#chrofohxrbl

@Stralor OpenRouter doesn't actually publish open/closed classifications. No API field. The only relevant thing is hugging_face_id, a pointer to where a model's weights might live, and it's set on about 45% of models.

That's what we use to autoclassify, but it has failed a few times in annoying ways. Have made some improvements, hopefully this market is more stable going forward.

The check we run now (well, starting tonight) is one question: does a public repo exist, owned by the model's publisher, containing real weight files? Hopefully this works and saves trouble in future

@Gen

@JasonMendoza2008 yes I think that is entirely reasonable. Market is likely to go up.

this market will need to have the funding rate cap massively increased

@Gen they sort open/closed on their page. do you know what their data source is?

@Stralor not sure but I assume Huggingface bc they provide that info for some models

I assume (hope) that they will do more with it and it will get easier soon