resolve?

@Manifold Sooo?

cool

Seems like Manifold needs optimization first, since currently it lags sometimes.

Does 100k count payment to employees for doing marketing / sales / non-product growth hacks?

Seems like this conditional market could be hard to interpret because of correlations with the condition.

Like, maybe if we're doing really well and growing, then we are more likely to spend $100k on marketing. To make it more causal, probably we'd have to commit to doing something very soon based on the judgment of the market.

We will probably only spend this if we're on track to hit >10k. So it's pretty safe to bet yes even if you're skeptical of marketing $$$ contributing substantially to growth.

@SG In other words, this market isn't measuring the variable we actually care about (whether marketing is a good growth channel).

@SG if you're truly trying to assess marketing $ -> # new users, why not run a promo campaign with "free mana if you sign up with hashtag foo" or whatever, and then actually measure signups by hashtag?

Should this have a counterfactual market?

@ahalekelly Yes

@ahalekelly (from Austin) I thought /itsTomekK/will-manifold-hit-10000-active-user-e999d9083a8f would serve well enough for calculating the counterfactual. It's not an exact match since 7d average is harder than a one-time 10k DAU; but should be roughly good enough?

I'm open to creating the counterfactural "if we don't spend 100k" market too though!

@ManifoldMarkets If we think there's already a significant chance of doing the intervention, then the unconditional is "contaminated" -- it's more ideal to have a strict "no intervention" counterfactual.