Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 10,000 in 2023.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I am having fun. In some sense, I hope I am wrong.

bought Ṁ2 of NO

Manifold, oh Manifold
Your growth is strong but not yet bold
Will you reach that magic goal?
Or will you crash and burn, a mere black hole?

predicted NO


bought Ṁ20 of NO

Katja must know something that we don't, or just a lot of faith in 10-fold increase in one year

bought Ṁ100 of NO

For anyone wondering why this market is stuck at 50%, @KatjaGrace added a massive M5000 limit order for Yes at 50%, of which 950 has so far been filled. So assuming her limit order stays in place, we need to throw another ~M4000 at No to break below 50%.

predicted NO

@jonsimon I'm already $1,200 in for NO, but I stopped bidding because I'm considering that if Manifold gets mentioned on Lex Fridman's podcast or even better someone from Manifold gets an interview with Lex, we would see a substantial spike in users:

predicted NO

@egroj but it still very strange that the one for 5,000 is higher than the one for 10,000

predicted NO

@egroj I mean almost the same, 5,000 should be higher

predicted NO

@egroj oh wow. What's people's rationale for thinking he'll mention it with such high confidence? Is he scheduled to interview the founders or something?

bought Ṁ350 of NO

@egroj very brief mention from Lex on Aella's episode and no spike in users due to that. Adjusting to lower probability

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@egroj the bots want to keep the probability up...

bought Ṁ29 of NO

Regardless of what you think about the final outcome, this market should be priced significantly lower than the one about getting 5000 active users daily, and it's not. People need to do some more buying to counteract the stupidity of these bots

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@jonsimon what's your YES% estimate

predicted NO

@itsTomekK On this market? Probably something closer to 25%, given the performance over the last 6mo.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

it seems like the bots know something that I don't, they keep betting YES

predicted NO

@egroj no pretty sure they're just dumb/broken. It especially makes no sense that they're keeping the price of this market so close to that of the 5k user market

predicted NO