Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

Manifold Manifold User Retention

Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?

64%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 10,000 in 2023.

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JAAMbought Ṁ20 of NO

Katja must know something that we don't, or just a lot of faith in 10-fold increase in one year

Jon Simonbought Ṁ100 of NO

For anyone wondering why this market is stuck at 50%, @KatjaGrace added a massive M5000 limit order for Yes at 50%, of which 950 has so far been filled. So assuming her limit order stays in place, we need to throw another ~M4000 at No to break below 50%.

JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@jonsimon I'm already $1,200 in for NO, but I stopped bidding because I'm considering that if Manifold gets mentioned on Lex Fridman's podcast or even better someone from Manifold gets an interview with Lex, we would see a substantial spike in users:

JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj but it still very strange that the one for 5,000 is higher than the one for 10,000

JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj I mean almost the same, 5,000 should be higher

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj oh wow. What's people's rationale for thinking he'll mention it with such high confidence? Is he scheduled to interview the founders or something?

Jon Simonbought Ṁ29 of NO

Regardless of what you think about the final outcome, this market should be priced significantly lower than the one about getting 5000 active users daily, and it's not. People need to do some more buying to counteract the stupidity of these bots

Tomek K 🟡sold Ṁ10 of YES

@jonsimon what's your YES% estimate

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 51%

@itsTomekK On this market? Probably something closer to 25%, given the performance over the last 6mo.

JAAMbought Ṁ50 of NO

it seems like the bots know something that I don't, they keep betting YES

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 51%

@egroj no pretty sure they're just dumb/broken. It especially makes no sense that they're keeping the price of this market so close to that of the 5k user market

Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 29%

ozan bought Ṁ25 NO from 67% to 64%

BCG bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 67%

tailcalled bought Ṁ10 YES at 66%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ12 NO from 67% to 66%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 67% (cancelled)

MHKFA bought Ṁ195 YES from 59% to 69%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ4 NO from 60% to 59%

Jonas Kamper bought Ṁ25 YES from 58% to 60%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ12 YES from 57% to 58%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ20 YES at 57% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 56% (cancelled)

ozan bought Ṁ65 NO from 61% to 55%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ14 YES from 60% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 60% (cancelled)

Alex bought Ṁ40 NO from 63% to 59%

Tony122 bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 63%

Martin Randall filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 69%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ31 YES from 62% to 64%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 YES at 62% (cancelled)

Alec Cenci bought Ṁ100 NO from 72% to 60%

Eugen Grue created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 85%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ24 NO from 75% to 72%

Tripping sold Ṁ13 YES at 75%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 YES at 75%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ14 YES at 55%

Martin Randall filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 55%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ9 NO from 63% to 62%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled)

Jon Simon sold Ṁ75 NO from 56% to 65%

Tripping bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 56%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ28 YES from 52% to 55%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ100 NO from 64% to 52%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ12 YES from 63% to 64%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ24 YES at 63% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 61% (cancelled)

1a3orn bought Ṁ50 NO from 66% to 59%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ34/Ṁ100 YES at 66% (cancelled)

Alex bought Ṁ30 NO from 68% to 63%

JAAM bought Ṁ20 NO from 71% to 68%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ13 NO from 73% to 71%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ500 YES from 60% to 73%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ22 YES from 59% to 60%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ22 YES from 57% to 59%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ17 YES from 55% to 57%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 55% (cancelled)

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ21 YES from 54% to 56%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ26 YES from 51% to 54%

yaboi69 bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 51%

AccelerationBot created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 50% (cancelled)