I am having fun. In some sense, I hope I am wrong.

Manifold, oh Manifold
Your growth is strong but not yet bold
Will you reach that magic goal?
Or will you crash and burn, a mere black hole?

Related:

Katja must know something that we don't, or just a lot of faith in 10-fold increase in one year

For anyone wondering why this market is stuck at 50%, @KatjaGrace added a massive M5000 limit order for Yes at 50%, of which 950 has so far been filled. So assuming her limit order stays in place, we need to throw another ~M4000 at No to break below 50%.

@jonsimon I'm already $1,200 in for NO, but I stopped bidding because I'm considering that if Manifold gets mentioned on Lex Fridman's podcast or even better someone from Manifold gets an interview with Lex, we would see a substantial spike in users:

@egroj but it still very strange that the one for 5,000 is higher than the one for 10,000

@egroj I mean almost the same, 5,000 should be higher

@egroj oh wow. What's people's rationale for thinking he'll mention it with such high confidence? Is he scheduled to interview the founders or something?

@egroj very brief mention from Lex on Aella's episode and no spike in users due to that. Adjusting to lower probability

@egroj the bots want to keep the probability up...

Regardless of what you think about the final outcome, this market should be priced significantly lower than the one about getting 5000 active users daily, and it's not. People need to do some more buying to counteract the stupidity of these bots

@jonsimon what's your YES% estimate

@itsTomekK On this market? Probably something closer to 25%, given the performance over the last 6mo.

it seems like the bots know something that I don't, they keep betting YES

@egroj no pretty sure they're just dumb/broken. It especially makes no sense that they're keeping the price of this market so close to that of the 5k user market