
This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 10,000 in 2023.

🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ5,885 | |
2 | Ṁ2,401 | |
3 | Ṁ1,740 | |
4 | Ṁ1,557 | |
5 | Ṁ1,413 |
For anyone wondering why this market is stuck at 50%, @KatjaGrace added a massive M5000 limit order for Yes at 50%, of which 950 has so far been filled. So assuming her limit order stays in place, we need to throw another ~M4000 at No to break below 50%.
@jonsimon I'm already $1,200 in for NO, but I stopped bidding because I'm considering that if Manifold gets mentioned on Lex Fridman's podcast or even better someone from Manifold gets an interview with Lex, we would see a substantial spike in users:
@egroj but it still very strange that the one for 5,000 is higher than the one for 10,000
@egroj oh wow. What's people's rationale for thinking he'll mention it with such high confidence? Is he scheduled to interview the founders or something?
@egroj very brief mention from Lex on Aella's episode and no spike in users due to that. Adjusting to lower probability
@itsTomekK On this market? Probably something closer to 25%, given the performance over the last 6mo.
@egroj no pretty sure they're just dumb/broken. It especially makes no sense that they're keeping the price of this market so close to that of the 5k user market