Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?
64%
chance

This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 10,000 in 2023.

Sort by:
egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ20 of NO

Katja must know something that we don't, or just a lot of faith in 10-fold increase in one year

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ100 of NO

For anyone wondering why this market is stuck at 50%, @KatjaGrace added a massive M5000 limit order for Yes at 50%, of which 950 has so far been filled. So assuming her limit order stays in place, we need to throw another ~M4000 at No to break below 50%.

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@jonsimon I'm already $1,200 in for NO, but I stopped bidding because I'm considering that if Manifold gets mentioned on Lex Fridman's podcast or even better someone from Manifold gets an interview with Lex, we would see a substantial spike in users:

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj but it still very strange that the one for 5,000 is higher than the one for 10,000

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj I mean almost the same, 5,000 should be higher

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 50%

@egroj oh wow. What's people's rationale for thinking he'll mention it with such high confidence? Is he scheduled to interview the founders or something?

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ29 of NO

Regardless of what you think about the final outcome, this market should be priced significantly lower than the one about getting 5000 active users daily, and it's not. People need to do some more buying to counteract the stupidity of these bots

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡sold Ṁ10 of YES

@jonsimon what's your YES% estimate

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 51%

@itsTomekK On this market? Probably something closer to 25%, given the performance over the last 6mo.

egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ50 of NO

it seems like the bots know something that I don't, they keep betting YES

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 51%

@egroj no pretty sure they're just dumb/broken. It especially makes no sense that they're keeping the price of this market so close to that of the 5k user market

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting NO at 29%