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MANIFOLD
Will the AGI Fire Alarm alert level be raised above Sapphire Sky 3 before 2024?
3
Ṁ90Ṁ70
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves as YES if the alert level of the twitter account https://twitter.com/agifirealarm is raised above Sapphire Sky 3 before Jan 1st 2024

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predictedYES

Can I steal your question for the month of January?

predictedYES

@RemNi We can do alternating months lol

predictedYES

@SteelSphinx What are the alert levels?

predictedYES

@RemNi No idea, I suppose someone can ask them on twitter.

predictedYES
predictedYES

guess nothing that exciting happened since December 9th 😆

😄 wasn't aware of that twitter account

The increase to Sapphire Sky 3 was on December 6th, so that's Gemini

What was the increase to Sapphire Sky 2 on November 18th? Was it the Reuters article about Q* ?

@RemNiFHfMN The reuters article on Q* was published on November 22nd: https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/

So they knew something about it 4 days beforehand, it would seem.

predictedYES

@SteelSphinx that's very interesting 🤔