Will an algorithm be able to write a full-length book indistinguisable from a human author before September 2024?
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resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

If there exists an algorithm that can write such a book, then this questions resolves to yes.

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@traders Heads up, if there's still no evidence supporting this before September 1st I'm going to resolve this as NO

Does giving the story summary in a ChatGPT prompt count? Or does the book plot have to be generated by the algorithm?

Acceptable to give a short summary and some instructions on how to write the novel (e.g first summarise each chapter then write chapters one by one)

But the summary has to be less than a page, and the novel has to be at least 100 pages long

Might be a good idea to define what "a page" is in this context. You can fit widely different number of characters/words in an A4 page depending on the font family and font size 😉

Gpt-4o long context can make 64k tokens outputs, which is more than 150 pages so this should be done relatively soon

Not sure if it would produce a full-length book indistinguisable from a human author though.

Need to see strong evidence in order to resolve this question as YES

What do you mean by indistinguishable though

On a per token basis 4o is already smarter and better at writing than the vast majority of people

For short texts yes. For long form text so far every example I've seen it's pretty obvious it wasn't written by a human. If you have a good example please don't hesitate to share.

@traders does anyone know of any books that might satisfy this? So far haven't seen any evidence, so steering towards a NO. Happy to hear any pointers though

Exactly how long does the book have to be? How will you judge indistinguishability?

@OlegEterevsky I'm thinking maybe 150 pages? If someone reads such a book and engages with it, perhaps mentioning on social that they enjoyed it before someone points out that it's AI-generated, then that would be an example of indistinguishability.

Does this include a full-length book of short stories or poems? Or the whole thing has to be a single narrative/topic?

@NateSelzer short stories or poems are too short. I'm thinking of a full-length novel, e.g. at least 150 pages?

Doesn't GPT4 turbo already do this if you set it up to write a few sub chapters at a time? I feel like this can be scripted to write a single short book.

@AJama I think it's possible to come up with a clever prompt that can generate chapters of a book that can then be strung together, but so far haven't seen any synthetic books that really hold together.

There's already plenty of books written so formulaically that it's impossible to tell whether they've been written by an "author" in any meaningful sense. Any chance of putting a lower bound on this?

@ClubmasterTransparent I have yet to see a book that really is "indistinguisable" from what a human author would produce. I think we're very close to this threshold, but all the examples I've seen so far are fairly obviously not written by a human

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