What will be the average yearly real GDP growth rate for the USA during 2021-2030?
What will be the average yearly real GDP growth rate for the USA during 2021-2030?
7
350Ṁ1322031
6
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Geometric average — i.e. (Real GDP(2030)/Real GDP(2021))^(1/10) - 1
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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