Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live)

1kṀ9266

resolved Dec 1

100%99.0%

Arjun Erigaisi

0.2%

Ian Nepomniachtchi

0.2%

Praggnanandhaa R

0.2%

Alireza Firouzja

0.2%

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

0.2%

D Gukesh

0.2%Other

Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.

If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first. If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating.

Can resolve as Magnus, Fabi or Hikaru in the event that they dip below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month.

Resolution date will be extended as needed.

Rating source: https://ratings.fide.com/

Market context

2024 World Chess Championship

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@creator resolves to Erigaisi

I bought no, seeing that his rating is 2799 and the tournament is over. My thinking is that he may have just been on a hot streak and his rating will fall the next time he plays.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Arjun drew MVL, finishes Chennai over 2800. Nothing else scheduled, and he's playing Tata rapid and blitz next, so there's barely time left in November even if he did want to add something.

Arjun's loss to Aravindh today makes things a bit dicey. He can wrap up the 2800 rating with a draw with the white pieces against Maxime Vachier-Lagrave in the final round, but if he loses, it looks like he'll drop below 2800 with no further events scheduled in November.