Can you also add a resolution source? A lot of these chess markets use 2700chess.com , maybe that is a good option. It is a long enough timeframe that there could be some kind of split in ranking methods that could cause controversy.

@Eliza How (if) do these ratings differ from the FIDE ratings?

@firstuserhere I have absolutely no idea. I just noticed other markets about ratings said something like that.

@Eliza Okay I'm going to use the official ratings from https://ratings.fide.com/

@firstuserhere ratings.fide.com is the official source, published monthly, including all tournaments that end at least a few days before the end of the month.

2700chess.com is “live” ratings, using the same algorithm, but updated after every game. Assuming no errors, the official ratings eventually catch up to this

Assuming no errors, they may catch up or not and this may be important for this market. If someone has a live rating of 2883 and then let’s say loses a game and drops to 2877 before monthly ratings are published (correction: actually before games stop counting for that month would be more precise but you get the idea) the distinction may be important

(2882 was oficially published - August 2019)

At least you've given it a somewhat interesting deadline of 2026. There is one about getting 2900 by the end of 2024 that seems completely unreasonable and I've put it down to 3%.

59% seems high but 2026 is a long time.

Related:

/BoltonBailey/will-magnus-carlsen-crack-2900

/M_C/will-magnus-carlsen-be-the-first-ch