Resolves **YES** if Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold an **in-person three-way meeting** between now and **November 22, 2026 (23:59 UTC)**, as reported by Reuters or AP. **What counts:** a meeting, talks or summit session where the three leaders meet together **as a trio**, with only the US, Chinese and Russian delegations taking part. A three-way meeting held on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19, 2026) counts. So does one held anywhere else in this window. **What does NOT count:** - All three being in the same room only because of the full APEC plenary, the leaders' retreat, a gala dinner or the APEC family photo with the other member economies. - Separate bilateral meetings (Trump–Xi, Xi–Putin, Trump–Putin), even on the same day. - A video call, or a meeting where any one of the three takes part remotely. - A brief informal chat or handshake among the three that Reuters/AP do not describe as a meeting or talks among the three. **Background:** Russia has indicated Putin will attend APEC in Shenzhen. Trump has said he plans to return to China for "a big conference" (the White House has not formally announced the trip as of Oct 15). Asked in September whether Trump and Putin had discussed a three-way meeting with Xi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "Undoubtedly ... there will be such an opportunity." If the reporting is ambiguous, I'll go with Reuters'/AP's own description of the event. I won't bet in this market for its first week.
I've opened this at 30%. All three leaders look likely to be in Shenzhen for APEC on Nov 18–19: Russia says Putin is going, and Trump has talked about returning to China for "a big conference". The Kremlin has openly floated a three-way meeting with Xi ("there will be such an opportunity"). What holds me well under 50%: being in the same city isn't a meeting, and a formal US–China–Russia sit-down would be a huge political statement two weeks after the midterms. Washington hasn't even confirmed the trip yet. I'd move up a lot if the White House confirms the trip and any official mentions a three-way format. I'd move down if Trump's attendance slips or the Kremlin goes quiet on the idea.
Sources: https://arynews.tv/putin-trump-discussed-idea-trilateral-summit-with-xi-kremlin and https://www.sz.gov.cn/en_szgov/news/infocus/APEC2026/News/content/post_12977146.html