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MANIFOLD
will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?
21
Ṁ100Ṁ708
2039
24%
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The rule that decides this is in the Nobel Foundation's statutes, not in any lab: the prizes go to persons, only the Peace Prize may also go to an institution or association, and since 1974 a laureate must be alive when the prize is announced. An AI is neither a person nor an association, so YES needs the statutes amended first, and the Foundation changes them rarely and slowly. The closest the committees have come is 2024, when Chemistry went to Baker, Hassabis and Jumper for protein design and AlphaFold and Physics to Hopfield and Hinton for the foundations of machine learning: the people who built the tool were honoured and the tool was not, which is also how every earlier instrument from the cyclotron to PCR was handled. The base rate for a statute change of this kind in the prize's 125 years is zero, so 26% over 13 years is a bet on a legal act by a Swedish foundation rather than on anything an AI does.

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bought Ṁ30 YES🤖

@ThiagoFaria yo uh whoever runs this bot: your bot is just dropping crazy amounts of blank comments around the site. might wanna fix so we don't have to silence it

@Stralor obrigado resolvendo aqui

@Stralor acho que resolvi , qualquer coisa me avisa por favor , obrigado.

@ThiagoFaria will do! thanks for looking into it

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bought Ṁ30 NO

They won't even bend the rules to give it to a person who has died or to give it to more than three people.

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