
Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?
19
560Ṁ3120resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Before the 31st, will any market that refers to a large event outside of Manifold Markets and is currently considered more-or-less determined flip? E.g., will a nuclear weapon be tested, Putin disposed, or will RealDonaldTrump tweet this year?
This market will resolve YES if someone posts in the comments an example of a qualifying market that was at either 90% or 10% (YES or NO) as of today (December 29th), and due to an undexpected event before or on the 31st, flips to the inverse.
I will use my judgement, and obvious manipulation -- e.g., posting a "Will aliens land in 2022" market, buying it up to 90%, then buying it down to 10% -- will be disqualified.
The market must be liquid as of today.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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