Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market (3)?
Mini
24
11k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES

Before the 31st, will any market that refers to a large event outside of Manifold Markets and is currently considered more-or-less determined flip? E.g., will a nuclear weapon be tested, Putin disposed, or will RealDonaldTrump tweet this year?

This market will resolve YES if someone posts in the comments an example of a qualifying market that was at either 90% or 10% (YES or NO) as of today (December 30th, 19h58 GMT-3), and due to an unexpected event before or on the 31st, flips to the inverse.

I will use my judgment, and obvious manipulation -- e.g., posting a "Will aliens land in 2022" market, buying it up to 90%, then buying it down to 10% -- will be disqualified.

The market must be liquid as of today.

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@Oevrlrod It looks like @MP will need to put up a 4th one of these!

@EdwardKmett enough is enough :

lol, bears were crazy to put this one at 10% after my second market solving to YES in less than one day.

I think that this market will get to less than 10% soon if people see it. It was at 96%:

@egroj never mind, it seems like more criteria will be counted for resolution other than it being classified as an ongoing event

Chaos!

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