Will the U.S. economy have a soft landing (Dec/2025)?

Question

This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following:

CPI Inflation excluding Food and Energy in U.S. City Average is below 2.75% YoY in the December 2025 reading

CPI Inflation excluding Food and Energy is above 1% YoY in the December 2025 reading

The Real-time Sahm Rule isn't triggered at any point until (employment-rate increase 50bps above the recent 6-month low), including January 2026.

The National Bureau of Economic Research doesn't call a recession starting at point until December 31st 2025.

I will resolve this market when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the inflation numbers for December 2025, in January 2026. If the National Bureau of Economic Research in a later date declares a recession starting in 2025, the result of this market won't change.

[image]Creator policy: I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Aug 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.