Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and confirmed as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Jerome Powell. The resolution will be based on the official announcement from the White House or the Federal Reserve Board.

Background:

Jerome Powell is currently serving his second term as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, which is set to conclude on May 15, 2026. (investopedia.com) The Chair is appointed by the President of the United States and must be confirmed by the Senate. Potential successors often include individuals with significant experience in economics, finance, or public policy.

Potential Candidates:

• Kevin Warsh: A former Federal Reserve Governor and current fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, Warsh has been critical of the Fed's recent policies, accusing it of "systematic errors" and overstepping its mandate. (ft.com)

• Kevin Hassett: Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, Hassett has been mentioned as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair position. (ft.com)

• Arthur Laffer: An economist known for the "Laffer Curve," Laffer has been an advisor to President Trump and is recognized for his supply-side economic theories.

• Larry Kudlow: Former Director of the National Economic Council under President Trump, Kudlow has a background in economics and media.

• Judy Shelton: An economist who has advocated for a return to the gold standard, Shelton was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump but faced a contentious confirmation process.

• Someone else: This option accounts for any other individual who may be appointed and confirmed as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board.

Considerations:

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is a significant decision that can influence U.S. monetary policy and economic direction. While the listed individuals are potential candidates, the actual appointment will depend on various factors, including political considerations, economic conditions, and the preferences of the sitting President and Senate at the time of the appointment.