Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
30
closes 2025
33%
chance

Elon says that Tesla will soon have a chat GPT moment in self-driving cars

"Yes, so I think Tesla is going to play an important role in AI and AGI. And I think I need to oversee that to make sure it's good. So because that's a thorny problem if there ever was one. I think generally, people do not -- very few people, even in the AI community, do not appreciate just how much capability Tesla has in AI. It's by far the most advanced real-world AI. There's no one even close. And reality has the most degrees of freedom. So I got to make sure that's good. We will have a launch event and we'll explore the issues in more detail. But I should say that...Tesla has actually tremendous capability in real-world AI. Yes. In fact, it is. Very far ahead of anyone. I don't know. People do talk about it online. I think Tesla will have a chat GPT moment maybe if not this year, I'd say no later than next year. You're gonna have a sort of chat GPT moment. Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves with no one, and then 5 million cars and then 10 million cars."

I'll rely in the mainstream media calling it a ChatGPT moment, Google trends, how other automakers and tech companies react, demand for Tesla's cars, and my personal judgement to determine if Tesla has a ChatGPT moment. ChatGPT was launched in Nov 30th 2022 and I think it took some time to acknolwege how big the cultural impact was, therefore I will wait until February 2025 to close this market. I can close this market to YES early.

If Tesla announcement is made in early 2025, it doesn't count.

Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ0 of NO(edited)

Free-to-use webapps can grow way faster than expensive car adoption.

no longer endorse, Elon Musk is using "ChatGPT moment" as a metaphor for surprising growth?

MP avatar
MP

@NoaNabeshima nope. That eventually FSD will be so good that it will start some sort of hype cycle around it

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimais predicting NO at 20%

@MP

Would all of these count?

MaxPayne avatar
Max Paynebought Ṁ10 of NO

Feels consistent with

MP avatar
MP

@MaxPayne I don't think that TSLA achieving level 3 will be a ChatGPT momement, lol. But what do I know?

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ30 of YES

I am uncomfortable as to what exactly is the definition of a "ChatGPT moment"? Is this a newer better version of ChatGPT or is this an industry shattering development?

Notwithstanding, this feels undervalued.

MP avatar
MP

@ShitakiIntaki I left the definition open and ultimately I'll have to adjudicate.

But if The Verge says that Tesla is having its ChatGPT moment with AI, this would be indicative that perhaps this market should be resolved to YES.

Schwabilismus avatar
Schwabilismusbought Ṁ10 of NO

Betting no just because i will be too excited/anxious to care if i loose points if this resolves as yes.

Related markets

Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2024?61%
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q2 2024?40%
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q3 2024?59%
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024?32%
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2023?37%
Will ChatGPT or equivalent AI chatbot be able to recall the information across all our chat history by 2024?55%
Will ChatGPT or an equivalent AI chatbot be able to produce text mimicking my personal style before 2024?81%
Will there be a fully self-sustaining Auto-GPT agent in 2023?26%
Will any Chatbot beat GPT-4 by July 1, 2024?69%
Will any Google model exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)68%
Will a ChatGPT-comparable chatbot be available within China at the end of this year?41%
Will ChatGPT or Bing be the most popular LLM chatbot at the end of 2024?72%
Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before Jan 1st, 2024?90%
Will I use ChatGPT or other “AI” this year?83%
Will ChatGPT have a level of "fact-checking" by the end of 2023?73%
Will ChatGPT get better at chat? (2023)67%
Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)6%
Will (DeepMind text model) exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)22%
Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024?56%
Will (stability.AI text model) exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)15%