Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
116
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2025
17%
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Elon says that Tesla will soon have a chat GPT moment in self-driving cars

"Yes, so I think Tesla is going to play an important role in AI and AGI. And I think I need to oversee that to make sure it's good. So because that's a thorny problem if there ever was one. I think generally, people do not -- very few people, even in the AI community, do not appreciate just how much capability Tesla has in AI. It's by far the most advanced real-world AI. There's no one even close. And reality has the most degrees of freedom. So I got to make sure that's good. We will have a launch event and we'll explore the issues in more detail. But I should say that...Tesla has actually tremendous capability in real-world AI. Yes. In fact, it is. Very far ahead of anyone. I don't know. People do talk about it online. I think Tesla will have a chat GPT moment maybe if not this year, I'd say no later than next year. You're gonna have a sort of chat GPT moment. Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves with no one, and then 5 million cars and then 10 million cars."

I'll rely in the mainstream media calling it a ChatGPT moment, Google trends, how other automakers and tech companies react, demand for Tesla's cars, and my personal judgement to determine if Tesla has a ChatGPT moment. ChatGPT was launched in Nov 30th 2022 and I think it took some time to acknolwege how big the cultural impact was, therefore I will wait until February 2025 to close this market. I can close this market to YES early.

If Tesla announcement is made in early 2025, it doesn't count.

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Is it accurate to assume that Tesla’s moat / fundamental justification for a trillion+ valuation hinges on proprietary data preventing competitors from copying/catching up quickly for FSD & Teslabot?

i.e. if a sufficiently general AI is developed it could learn how to drive + be used in a humanoid robot with considerably less training time + data (& without tesla’s proprietary data) this would erode most of Tesla’s competitive advantage as that AI could be licensed and used by all its competitors

I got Beta a while ago and had my first WOW moment when it offered to auto parallel park for me. I know this feature exists from other carmakers, but if they add the following I think the moment may happen:

  • summon - never search for your car (for people who forget where they park), save walking, never accidentally step in garbage. always leave from the entrance. pose at the entrance to the cool spot you were in, chat w/hotties, leave when your car zips up as if you have a chauffer, pre-warmed

    • could this be the new "cool smoking break"? people who have the money leave the club/restaurant/etc and stand in front, waiting for their "drivers" to pick them up. The rest of the world wanders the dark streets trying to find their car

  • auto-full-park (drop car at entrance to garage, car parks for you) - imagine never having to enter your work's super grungy parking garage again. imagine saving the 6 minute walk through trash, cigarette butts etc, 2x/day forever. That itself would have been worth 15k to me in some previous jobs which had

  • auto-parking-finder - in places like SF just finding parking can be a 20 minute chore (plus if you park far or in a random spot, you have a tough job the next day to locate your car). If the car knows its price limit, it can valet park itself jammed in fully into a room full of other teslas, parked infinitely close together.

  • street spaces in SF go for 500$+ a month. But if your car can autopark, it can park in some 2-3 mile away basement for much less than that, saving money

Anyway the point is, it just takes a few marginal features (which could be done at low speeds, w/out passengers) to mega-impact a certain set of (very rich) people's lives.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 20% to 19%
bought Ṁ0 of NO

Free-to-use webapps can grow way faster than expensive car adoption.

no longer endorse, Elon Musk is using "ChatGPT moment" as a metaphor for surprising growth?

@NoaNabeshima nope. That eventually FSD will be so good that it will start some sort of hype cycle around it

predicts NO

@MP

Would all of these count?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Feels consistent with

@MaxPayne I don't think that TSLA achieving level 3 will be a ChatGPT momement, lol. But what do I know?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

I am uncomfortable as to what exactly is the definition of a "ChatGPT moment"? Is this a newer better version of ChatGPT or is this an industry shattering development?

Notwithstanding, this feels undervalued.

@ShitakiIntaki I left the definition open and ultimately I'll have to adjudicate.

But if The Verge says that Tesla is having its ChatGPT moment with AI, this would be indicative that perhaps this market should be resolved to YES.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Betting no just because i will be too excited/anxious to care if i loose points if this resolves as yes.

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