Will OpenAI and Anthropic announce they're merging into one in 2023?
OpenAIAI RegulationSam AltmanOpenAI CrisisAnthropicMicrosoftNew Year's Resolutions 2024
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Ṁ22k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Self-describing. If they release a press release saying they're merging into one team, this market resolves to YES. This market resolves to NO by year end.

I may bet on this market.

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Related: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/on-feb-1-2024-will-i-believe-that-o?r=RGFuaWVsRmlsYW4

Journalist writing about AI for WIRED:

@ersatz theinformation articles have been worth their weight in gold so far so that would be surprising

@ersatz https://manifold.markets/acertain/did-the-openai-board-approach-anthr

Related: https://manifold.markets/Nils/will-anthropic-and-openai-merge-at

(Resolves Feb 1st)

this would be the good timeline (therefore it will not happen)

@SemioticRivalry good question, created a market

https://twitter.com/var_epsilon/status/1726774102654964159 this was tried and rejected. But I guess if openai breaks down the remaining rump may join anthropic.

Related (but resolves end of 2024 instead): https://manifold.markets/EricNeyman/will-openai-and-anthropic-announce

@EricNeyman markets with shorter resolution are more traded, in my experience. As a tip for you as a creator

@MP Thanks for the tip! I do think that having both resolution dates is valuable (and I'm fine with my market being less traded).

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