On Feb 1 2024, will I believe that OpenAI approached Anthropic about a merger?
28
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Feb 2
55%
chance

On November 20th, The Information reported the following (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-approached-anthropic-about-merger):
> OpenAI’s board of directors approached Dario Amodei, the co-founder and CEO of rival large-language model developer Anthropic, about a potential merger of the two companies, said a person with direct knowledge. The approach came after OpenAI’s board had fired CEO Sam Altman on Friday and was part of an effort by OpenAI to persuade Amodei to replace Altman as CEO, the person said.

This was then disputed by Will Knight, a Wired reporter, who tweeted (https://twitter.com/willknight/status/1726793735143621058)
> I have reason to believe that the OpenAI Anthropic merger story is a complete fabrication

On Feb 1st 2024, will I think The Information's reporting, as represented by the quote placed in this article, is accurate? I promise I will try to be reasonable.

Since this is about my beliefs, I will not bet in this market.

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DanielFilan avatar
Daniel Filan

Will Knight has deleted the tweet linked in the description. Today he tweeted this:

I posted a tweet late last night based on some information I haven't been able to corroborate. With so many different narratives and claims flying around right now, I decided it best to delete it.

https://twitter.com/willknight/status/1727015146852360336

CarstenStolz avatar
Carsten Stolzbought Ṁ20 of YES

Bought some yes on this and no on the linked market to trade a little arbitrage https://manifold.markets/acertain/did-the-openai-board-approach-anthr?r=Q2Fyc3RlblN0b2x6

HollyElmore avatar
Holly Elmorebought Ṁ10 of NO

I just have a gut feeling it's fake. The Information reported some stuff earlier in the Sam Altman debacle, like that the board wanted him back, that I'm pretty sure was propaganda from Sam partisans that they uncritically reported.