According to Elon Musk, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely

This market resolves to YES if one year from now, I'll consider that the OpenAI debacle had an entertaining outcome, according to my own judgment. This means something very unusual that will make a technology junk like me very entertained.

Here's an non-exaustive list of possible outcomes:

• Anthropic and OpenAI merge

• OpenAI go to another big tech

• ChatGPT ceases to exist

• OpenAI ceases to exist

• Someone goes to jail

• The new model they make on Microsoft is very unhinged

I won't bet on this market.

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