If the People's Republic of China bans any of Qualcomms businesses to China (cars, baseband, SoCs, royalties...) by the end February 2024, this market resolves to YES. I'll rely on Qualcomm's own reporting and sell-side analysts to adjudicate the quesiton. I won't bet on this market.
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I am not sure there is a good enough alternative to Qualcomm for this to be realistic at this point. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220616005125/en/Strategy-Analytics-Headline%C2%A0Qualcomm-Apple-and-MediaTek-Dominate-the-Arm-based-Mobile-Computing-Chip-Market
@BTE the export controls aren't part of the chips act. They are a direction made by the department of commerce.
And no, the United States didn't stop China from buying handset APs and modems. It would be silly. In the semiconductor side, it was basically a ban in exports of Nvidia H100 and A100 GPUs. The majority of the export controls is towards to affect China's capabilities to make semiconductors: EDA tools and semicap tools like those made by Applied Materials and Lam Research
@MP My bad on confusing that with the Chips Act. Let’s not forget about ASML, probably the most important semiconductor tooling company of them all.
@BTE yes, but ASML is a Dutch company. Amsterdam has its own export controls (same for Tokyo Electron and Japan)