Will the 2024 election have an entertaining outcome?

According to Elon Musk, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely

This market resolves to YES if the election of 2024 has an entertaining outcome, according to my own judgment. This means something very unusual that will make a politics junk like me very entertained.

Here's an non-exaustive list of possible outcomes:

  • A constitucional crisis

  • A tie in the Electoral College

  • A civil war

  • One of the candidates die and there's a scramble to decide who fills the ticket (not all deaths are entertaining)

  • A jailed criminal is elected president

  • Faithless electors change the outcome of the election

  • A State legislature doesn't send the votes widely known as the correct ones

  • The list goes on

I think I would only consider the recent 2000 election as entertaining.

This market resolves on the inauguration day.

I won't bet. I can provide guidance in the comments.

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I feel that if a Democrat wins the presidency without winning the popular vote, it'd be very entertaining. Do you agree?

I love these markets where everyone is betting small amounts, not really sure what the odds should be. A fellow like @GabboBot comes up and bets YES a lot and no one decides to push back down again.

2020 wasn't "entertaining"? "stop the count" and whatnot? I expect things to be at a similar level, not sure which way to bet.

@horse in the end, it worked properly. The 2000 was decided in the SCOTUS.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

In the UK this is known as the banter heuristic, a shockingly helpful guide for political predictions

The recent 2000 election, yeah that was crazy, inventing the internet, hanging chads, boil on the face.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Excellent market