Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?

Mini

5

Ṁ194resolved Sep 1

Resolved

N/A1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market references the market below

If that market does not eventually resolve YES, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, this resolves YES if and only if, on the Monday before the election, this market is valued at least 80% (measured as an average throughout the day).

This is inspired by the following market

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

@BoltonBailey Another version: Suppose that the manifold prior is uniform between 20% to 100% (so that the ultimate probability is 60%, as it predicts now), then the proper value for this market would be 37.5

## Related questions

## Related questions

How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?

Conditional on X being the tipping point state, will the Democratic nominee win it?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

55% chance

What chance will Manifold give the Democratic Party on this 2024 US presidential election market on October 1?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

50% chance

Using Monday's before the election probabilities, will Manifold probabilities "feel accurate" in retrospective?

35% chance

Will both candidates' chances of winning the day before election day be between 40% and 60% on electionbettingodds.com?

73% chance

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

51% chance

Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?

How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?