Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?
2024 US Election
5
52
แน€130
Nov 4
15%
chance

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If that market does not eventually resolve YES, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, this resolves YES if and only if, on the Monday before the election, this market is valued at least 80% (measured as an average throughout the day).

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For reference a bit of math. Suppose manifold's assessment of the chance will be chosen uniformly at random from 0% to 100% and that whatever assessment manifold makes, the probability then reflects that assessment. Then the proper value for this market should be 1- 0.8^2 = 0.36

@BoltonBailey Another version: Suppose that the manifold prior is uniform between 20% to 100% (so that the ultimate probability is 60%, as it predicts now), then the proper value for this market would be 37.5

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