Generative AI killer app by March 2025?

Plus

Ṁ1010

2025

1.6%

Microsoft 365 Co-pilot

0.8%

Meta AI Chatbot on WhatsApp/Messenger/IG

A new generative AI revamped Siri/Alexa/Cortana/etc by big tech

0.8%

Something related to ERP/CRM/HCM/etc application software incumbents

79%

There won't be a killer app

ChatGPT itself

12%

Other

This market resolves to the first killer that emerges for AI. It has to have at least one order of magnitude more potential success than ChatGPT currently has. (The current monetizaiton model, of charging $20/mo for using GPT-4 isn't likely to make a lot of revenue)

A killer app is something that is possible to justify the $100B of sales Nvidia is likely to make in CY 2024. ChatGPT, that runs on A100s, is very unlikely to justify that. A killer app is something that is likely to create some sort of speculative craze and a new round of CapEx by hyperscalers and other tech companies using the product as justification.

This market could resolve to ChatGPT itself if OpenAI finds a new monetizaiton model or add some feature that could make people think that actually, ChatGPT potential is an order of magnitude bigger.

If a product fills more than one cathegory, I'll try to choose the one that best describe and resolve only to that.

I'll rely on a Wall Street analysts to adjudicate this market and I won't bet. This market will require significant judgement. I may add new answer in the future

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

8 Comments

11 Holders

35 Trades

Sort by:

So this market resolve if a Wall Street analyst says that X is "AI's killer app"?
I think there should be a more precise way to measure what a killer app is

I would keep an eye on adding something like an AI video editor as well as an AI no-code software developer.

I’m surprised you say charging $20 isn’t likely to make you a lot of money. Isn’t that Netflix’ entire business model?

@SenneVanHeghe yes, they do that with 200M users. ChatGPT is a freemium product that only a fraction will pay.

@MP To be fair, I think ChatGPT has potential to reach mass markets too. It’s incredibly useful if you know how to use it.

Perhaps more awareness, a cleaner UI & better auto-suggestions/integrations will help spur this adoption.

Also, if I’m not mistaken a ton of niche products are being built by small developers using openai’s API- which will sure also help their bottom line

I get where you’re coming from though, it definitely still has a long way to go

@SenneVanHeghe I am open to this idea too, in fact, that's why I put ChatGPT as one of the options.

But just to compare, Netflix charges $20, but they only spend $17B in content. We're talking about an industry that have say, 7 digits subscribers charging $20 that is making $100B in capex next year. Either these subscriber numbers increase an order of magnitude (at least), or we find new usecases, either we're soon concluding that $100B in capex is a tad too much to support an industry without viable business models

@MP Oh very curious- I had no idea the capex spend was so high. Will be interesting to see how the next few years unfold

Thanks for the cool market!

Related questions

Related questions