This market resolves to the first killer that emerges for AI. It has to have at least one order of magnitude more potential success than ChatGPT currently has. (The current monetizaiton model, of charging $20/mo for using GPT-4 isn't likely to make a lot of revenue)

A killer app is something that is possible to justify the $100B of sales Nvidia is likely to make in CY 2024. ChatGPT, that runs on A100s, is very unlikely to justify that. A killer app is something that is likely to create some sort of speculative craze and a new round of CapEx by hyperscalers and other tech companies using the product as justification.

This market could resolve to ChatGPT itself if OpenAI finds a new monetizaiton model or add some feature that could make people think that actually, ChatGPT potential is an order of magnitude bigger.

If a product fills more than one cathegory, I'll try to choose the one that best describe and resolve only to that.

I'll rely on a Wall Street analysts to adjudicate this market and I won't bet. This market will require significant judgement. I may add new answer in the future