By 2028, will Eliezer Yudkowsky announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend?
By 2028, will Eliezer Yudkowsky announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend?
31
1kṀ49142029
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Also works for another genres of AI (men, non-binary...)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will Eliezer Yudowsky become romantically involved with an AI before 2030?
15% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella start dating during the next 3yrs?
8% chance
By 2028, will Aella announce she's in love with an AI boyfriend?
7% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
20% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get killed by an AI?
18% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
4% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
62% chance
Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
6% chance