Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2023?
7
179
150
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
NO
Tress of the Emerald Sea has been nominated for Best Fantasy of 2023.
Nov 15
Tress of the Emerald Sea has passed to the final round for Best Fantasy of 2023.
Nov 28
The the winners of the 2023 Goodreads Choice Awards have been announced. I don't see any books by Brandon Sanderson. Resolving NO. Please participate in the following. @/HankyUSA/will-a-book-by-brandon-sanderson-wi-cdbf1e0226d2 @/HankyUSA/will-a-book-by-brandon-sanderson-wi-e84782c4657b
Dec 7

I think the title is clear, but questions are welcome as always.

I do not consider 2nd place an award.

Background

Goodreads Choice Awards

Brandon Sanderson

This market was inspired by Elliot Brooks' video GOODREADS ~ let's discuss.

Reminders

I prefer my markets to be unambiguous and objective. Please feel free to suggest improvements or ask for clarification, preferably before placing bets. I don’t promise to read every comment. Get my attention by @-mentioning me. If you think this market is perfect as-is, then please share it with others.

I will block people who unnecessarily make my markets an unpleasant place to participate. Please stay on topic, be sincere, and de-escalate conflict.

Put your mana where your mouth is, but don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ13
2Ṁ9
3Ṁ8
4Ṁ6
5Ṁ4
Sort by:
predicted NO

I CRUSHED IT! Thanks for hosting.

@Eliza Thank you for participating.

The the winners of the 2023 Goodreads Choice Awards have been announced. I don't see any books by Brandon Sanderson. Resolving NO.

Please participate in the following.

Tress of the Emerald Sea has passed to the final round for Best Fantasy of 2023.

predicted NO

@LukeHanks The market responds with crickets! Maybe I should buy more No!

Thanks for the update!

sold Ṁ24 of YES

@LukeHanks I am trying to figure out where to put this. A vote is literally a popularity contest so as long as you got nominated, if you have a lot of fans you are in good shape. But I can't figure out how many of the other nominees have huge fanbases. Also whether he will personally activate/encourage his fan base or not.

I looked at the Goodreads rating count for other books in the category and this one is definitely mid-upper. I seem to recall that Brandon Sanderson has a very large following.

predicted YES

@Eliza Looks like he gets 50-75k views on weekly YouTube videos, so there is definitely interest and if he uses one of those videos to ask for votes, it would make a big difference most likely.

predicted YES

@Eliza Did anyone research how often he has been nominated in the past?

predicted YES

@Eliza I've moved it from 29% to 42%, not sure about more at this time.

if he uses one of those videos to ask for votes, it would make a big difference most likely.

@Eliza From what I've heard Brandon Sanderson say in the past, he doesn't care that much about these kinds of things. If he even mentions the nomination he won't directly ask his fans to vote for his book.

Dragonsteel 2023 (Brandon Sanderson fan convention) is Nov. 20-21, so his fans may be more active during the Goodreads Choice Awards Opening Round (Nov. 14-26) even if he doesn't say anything.

Did anyone research how often he has been nominated in the past?

I don't know where to find a comprehensive list, but here's what I've found.

bought Ṁ30 NO from 53% to 40%
predicted YES

@LukeHanks I guess it's just as likely he asks in a video to NOT vote for him, and to try voting for someone else. That's a long string of NOT winning. It won't matter to him or his sales figures one bit whether he gets an award.

Worldhoppers YouTube channel (Jessie Mae, christea, Angela) all agree that Fourth Wing by Rebecca Yarros is going to win in the Fantasy category. Brandon Sanderson is discussed at around 10:03 and 28:06.

predicted YES

@LukeHanks Looks like it did not even get nominated in the Fantasy category. Interesting, it got a different nomination instead.

More related questions