MANIFOLD

Will a highly watched yet highly illegal black market for GPUs emerge before the end of 2025

Ṁ1kṀ2.3k

resolved Sep 17

Resolved

YES

ALL

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ558
2		Ṁ124
3		Ṁ115
4		Ṁ59
5		Ṁ48

People are also trading

Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?

41% chance

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

16% chance

Nvidia below $140 by March 2026?

12% chance

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

24% chance

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

62% chance

Will they tax GPUs?

58% chance

Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?

24% chance

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

57% chance

Will Nvidia share price be higher at end of 2028 than at end of 2025?

82% chance

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Sort by:

@traders does anyone think this shouldn't resolve YES now?

bought Ṁ750 YES

this market seems resolvable based on ops statements and additional reporting? @LukasPellant

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/nvidia-h100-gpu-black-market-prices-drop-in-china-banned-by-us-sanctions-but-still-available

@mods

Doesn't the black market for H100s sold to China meet this criteria?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@RemNi https://money.udn.com/money/story/11162/7931954

@RemNi i would say yes

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "highly watched", "highly illegal" and "black market"?

Yeah, seconding this, seems too vague to confidently predict on. Would be good to hear from @LukasPellant - what sort of things would you base your resolution of this on?

People are also trading

Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?

41% chance

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

16% chance

Nvidia below $140 by March 2026?

12% chance

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

24% chance

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

62% chance

Will they tax GPUs?

58% chance

Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?

24% chance

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

57% chance

Will Nvidia share price be higher at end of 2028 than at end of 2025?

82% chance

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

53% chance

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

People are also trading

Related questions