Joe Biden, future Effective Altruist? It's more likely than you might think!
It's not enough for Joe to say "I'm a long-term thinker" or "I care doing things well." The term "effective altruism" needs to be employed. (Not necessarily said by him—reporter: "Are you an effective altruist?" Joe: "You betcher bottom dollar I am!" counts.)
Close date updated to 2025-01-21 6:59 pm
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ167 | |
| 2 | Ṁ126 | |
| 3 | Ṁ110 | |
| 4 | Ṁ70 | |
| 5 | Ṁ56 |
Hi @LucaMasters. I've noted that (i) this market is growing in liquidity, (ii) you have a short track record of creating markets on Manifold, and (iii) you have a large "Yes" position in this market, which could end up resolving somewhat subjectively.
I'm planning on creating a duplicate of this market as an alternative for traders who might be concerned about the small potential for mis-resolution or bias. I wanted to make sure you were aware of the reasons and that I let you know upfront.
@CarsonGale Totally fair. I'm just having fun at a pretty low cost (I've spent Ṁ630 and the ~67 traders have earned me...I'm not sure; is it Ṁ670? Or did it hit a cap at some point? Either way, I'll resolve honestly, having had my fun and gamed the market creation leaderboard a tad.
Context for why this market was created: https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-joe-biden-openly-convert-to-ea#MjPm40Jc4TRNw3qdaDgM