This market is an explicit copy of @LucaMasters' market (shown below) as I wanted to provide a trading alternative with a track record of accurate market resolution to help traders diversify away resolution risk. To be explicit - I have no reason to suspect that @LucaMasters might resolve the market improperly other than my general wariness of any new user - Luca has personally done nothing to deserve any suspician.
I will be betting in this market, as part of my rationale for creating the market is to diversify away some of my own position in the parallel market from resolution risk.
The original market description states:
"Joe Biden, future Effective Altruist? It's more likely than you might think!
It's not enough for Joe to say "I'm a long-term thinker" or "I care doing things well." The term "effective altruism" needs to be employed. (Not necessarily said by him—reporter: "Are you an effective altruist?" Joe: "You betcher bottom dollar I am!" counts.)"
1,000
3.00To be fair, I have done one suspicious thing: I've kept buying yes on my market.
I'm going to resolve it honestly, and my actual expectation is < 1% yes, but the trickle subsidy got my a nice number of bettors on a joke market. It's my most successful market by that metric by about a factor of five.
Or maybe I'm lying and I'm going to take everybody's money!
@LucaMasters You actually think it’s <1%? It doesn’t seem totally implausible to me that Biden calls himself an “effective altruist” when asked, because who doesn’t like altruism and who doesn’t like doing things effectively?
@Conflux It seems very unlikely that anyone will ask him about it, and I doubt he'll use the term on his own. Maybe I'm under-estimating how viral we've gone. Could be some mention of FTX will lead to it coming up, I guess.
@LucaMasters I guess I mostly think it’s likely in the scenarios where we go much more viral, which have greater than 1% probability