Resolves YES if by 2100 there is a real-world application of large cardinals that, to the best judgment of Manifold resolvers at that time, can be credited for producing at least an equivalent of 1 million dollars, in 2023 US dollars, worth of "value".
It is required that the value is judged to somehow be "tangible". So if someone offers an award of more than 1 million for a solution of an open problem about large cardinals, but the reason they offered it is just their curiosity, that doesn't count. (Something like acausal trading would be considered tangible if there is an earnest belief on someone's part that there is some value being generated, and that belief is not judged as wholly unreasonable on the part of the wider society.)
1,000I wanted to ask this question about large cardinals in general, and not just about strongly inaccessible ones, but I was opening a lot of questions yesterday and forgot what exactly I wanted to ask. Since there's only been one trader on this question I'll take the liberty of changing it, but @ArmandodiMatteo please let me know if this changes your epistemic state, I'll reimburse you for any losses in that case.
@Lovre My probability for large cardinals in general would be a bit less small than for strongly inaccessible ones specifically, but still below 24%, so I'm fine