What will be the largest city in the world in 2050?
What will be the largest city in the world in 2050?
2
1.2kṀ1102051
32%
Delhi, India
8%
Shanghai, PRC
8%
7%
Dhaka, Bangladesh
7%
Kinshasa, DRC
7%
Kolkata, India
7%
Karachi, Pakistan
7%
Lagos, Nigeria
7%
Mumbai, India
7%
Tokyo, Japan
This market resolves to the projected largest urban agglomeration in 2050. The resolution source will be the most recent publication of the UN World Urbanization Prospects as of 2050.
Projections for 2024 via 2018 report:
Tokyo, 37.1 million
Delhi, 33.8 million
Shanghai, 29.9 million
Dhaka, 23.9 million
São Paulo, 22.8 million
Cairo, 22.6 million
Mexico City, 22.5 million
Beijing, 22.2 million
Mumbai, 21.7 million
New York, 19 million
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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