MANIFOLD
In Tontine, which will be the next species to go extinct?
6
แน€500แน€1.5k
resolved Sep 2
100%97%
Another species
0.1%
Red Cultist - Small weiner bo
1.5%
Red Lizard-Mage - J-Miah
0.6%
Orange Minotaur - Greg
0.6%
Orange Kobold - Derective
0.1%
Yellow Cultist - Klik

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-5-28, 436 players remain.

Each living player has an avatar, chosen freely at the start of the game. They had a choice among 7 colors and 10 sprites, resulting in 70 possible choices of avatar. Of these 70 species, 69 remain: all but yellow lizard-mage.

Below: the state of play as of day 597, 2023-08-17. Names in white are the endlings of their species.

The market resolves to the next species to go extinct, immediately upon my recognition that another species has in fact gone extinct. "Another species" counts as a species for this purpose.

In the event that multiple species all have their endlings die on the same day, the market will resolve to all such correct answers.

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With the death of aheiman9 tonight, the Yellow Kobold has gone extinct. The market resolves to OTHER.

I haven't forgotten this market - I'm currently out of town and away from computer, so I can't actually do the careful and masterful work in MS Paint required for now.

@Lorxus With all the tontine markets you make, are you in the actual game/still alive?

@LiamSterling I sure am!

@LiamSterling if you want to go looking for me, I'm Lorxus there as well - one of the cyan plague-doctors.

@Lorxus Iโ€™m togetherweareli lol it got cut off. Red ghostie! Iโ€™ll keep an eye out for you!

@LiamSterling what was your name intended to be?

@Lorxus TogetherWeAreLiam, just the final two missing

Is there a way for non registered players to check specific people named on image are living or not? Happened to come across "Derective" as Alive for 563 days but I am not looking for more.

How did you get that image? Is there a way to quickly check the current state?

@PatMyron I made it myself, starting from an image another player made. I've been keeping track manually, using tools for checking individual players and listing off deaths each day. To my knowledge there's no way to quickly check, but I plan to update this manually here every few days. If you'd like I can finish updating my personal copy now and post it.

@Lorxus if multiple players pass on the same day in between your checks, can you tell the order they passed?

@PatMyron That question doesn't quite make sense. Players only die at midnight each day, so the answer to the question of ordering is always "simultaneously".

@Lorxus gotcha, just meant to ask how this will resolve if multiple species go extinct at once (n/a or split)

@PatMyron Oh! Thank you for catching that! I don't think that that's going to happen but in that case the correct answers will all split the pot.

@PatMyron I didn't quite interpret this question correctly at the time - apologies! I can manually check on who's alive and who hasn't checked in yet, and I do so more than daily. I'm in no danger of missing an extinction.

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