Will the AFD get the second largest share of the votes in the next Bavarian State election
resolved Oct 14
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predicted NO

Unfortunately I don't think @LorenzWestner is still around - no activity in the last 4 weeks... Lorenz, if you're still here, I think this can be resolved NO.

They came in 3rd it appears, 1.2% behind the Free Voters and 0.2% ahead of the Greens - per the Bavarian Electoral authority:

predicted NO

@sarius Still provisional but looks good for no

predicted NO

Looks like we should wait for the real results which take a few days more?

@marketwise Absolutely! Interesting that this market updated so strongly on early projections (going up to 99%), even though the numbers are still fluctuating quite a lot every time the projections get updated

predicted NO

@JohannesKoch Speculation upon speculation

predicted NO

AfD 0.8 Points behind Greens in exit polls

From yesterday

predicted NO

The latest polls differ a lot:

I guess an anti-Semitism scandal helps your poll numbers in Bavaria:


Latest two polls show AfD either closely behind in 3rd or in 4th even.

@parhizj Goes to show that quite a bit of the Bavarian (probably true in most multi-party western democracies) right-wing populist vote will simply follow wherever media/bubble attention is pointing, especially in light of a "perceived unfair cancellation." If the polls are accurate that is.

predicted NO

@sarius I feel similarly but I’m probably projecting after Trumps polls number went up following his 4th indictment

Spitballing after reading for a couple hours about German politics: the head of the FW party (which is in a coalition with the leading CSU party) in Bavaria is faced with a scandal a month before the election. This seems to me that it might hurt both of those parties and help AfD in particular (as I read that FW often steals some of AfDs voter base as they are both right leaning parties). This news came out after recent polls from last week showing AFD now with a significant lead over the Green Party. On top of that Der Spiegel released an article last week (also after the poll) pointing to US-Ukraine for the destruction of the nord stream pipeline - this news, I speculate would only boost AfD support further.


@LorenzWestner Yeah the polls are still within the margin of error. I suppose if either FW, Green or AfD parties have an equal shot then this market should be lower than 50% so I sold some shares.

I don't have much (any) prior knowledge.

Are these sustained trends, can we expect them to continue?

@DavidChee Difficult to say. I feel like one of the main drivers towards the Afd at the moment is dislike of green "climate hysteria". I suspect if the current national governement does a good job appearing competent it won't continue. If they look stupid, greens go down, Spd gos down and Afd and Csu go up.

@Timothy I think it mainly depends on CSU and FW strategy. Over the last months they are trying to copy the AFD and get a culture war going. If they continue this way people will just vote for the original (AFD) instead of the copy (CSU). It's also a lot about voter turnout. Currently the culture war is mainly fought on the extreme right with everyone else not caring. This leads to higher turnout for the fascists and lower for the democratic parties.

predicted YES

i think you could easily argue that people would rather vote for the FW if they promise the same things (gets the satisfaction for voting somebody that promises to deal with their wishes, without having to vote for the afd)

also "Currently the culture war is mainly fought on the extreme right with everyone else not caring." is pretty funny. Do you really think a majority cares about specific LQBT- related issues? They are supporters in theory, but try teaching kids about gender identity you will have the majority against you real fast.
Same with environmental issues.
They care about nature as long as it does not curtail their lifestyle.

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode Okay i guess i just agreed with you i guess 😂


at least this makes it look like it is basically just dislike of immigration. 92% say they vote for the party because of asylum policy.