Will Tumblr be fediblocked by a majority of the top 10 Mastodon instances by MAU, 6 months after implementation?
Plus
18
Ṁ3562031
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note: this is conditional on Tumblr implementing ActivityPub support. If that doesn't happen before close, this market will resolve N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will I be on Mastodon by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will tumblr shut down by the end of 2027?
30% chance
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2027?
71% chance
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026?
81% chance
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2024?
97% chance
Will tumblr re-tighten its restrictions on porn in 2024?
12% chance
Will Threads interoperate with Mastodon before the end of 2024?
83% chance
Will Tumblr Survive Another 10 Years?
43% chance
Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
44% chance
Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
48% chance