Cavendish has to win at least one stage at the Tour de France 2024. This question will be resolved to no, if he doesn't win one or the tour doesn't take place or he doesn't start. He has to be officially announced as a winner after a stage or until the end of the tour. If there are i. e. any doping allegations after the tour, the question will already be resolved.
More information:
The TdF-Dashboard: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef
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Okay, we're just a few weeks out now. Cavendish has had a win at the Tour Colombia 2.1 early in the season and another win at the Tour de Hongrie (2.Pro) in May.
In last year's Tour de France, he came very close to a win on Stage 7 to Bordeaux, but was passed by Jasper Philipsen. After the stage, Cavendish complained of an issue with his gear shifting, causing him to lose momentum during the sprint. He crashed out the following day in the middle of the stage with a broken collarbone.
Cavendish is now 39 years old and, once again, in the final year of his career. Will he pull off a win against competition over a decade younger than him?
The '24 route doesn't look as good for Cav as the '23 route. https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/im-in-shock-mark-cavendish-reacts-to-hard-but-beautiful-tour-de-france-route
Updating to over 50% now that Morkov will be helping him
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/astana-sign-michael-morkov-to-lead-out-mark-cavendish-in-2024-sprints/
