Cavendish has to win at least one stage at the Tour de France 2024. This question will be resolved to no, if he doesn't win one or the tour doesn't take place or he doesn't start. He has to be officially announced as a winner after a stage or until the end of the tour. If there are i. e. any doping allegations after the tour, the question will already be resolved.

More information:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/its-not-over-yet-mark-cavendish-to-race-on-in-2024-target-tour-de-france-record/

The TdF-Dashboard: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef