Will Mark Cavendish start the 2024 Tour de France?
Jun 30

From GCN 9/20:

"Over two and a half months since his Tour de France crash and abandonment, it remains unclear whether Mark Cavendish will prolong his career into 2024 and have one more tilt at Tour de France glory.

However, the indications are that the 38-year-old will decide to row back on the retirement decision he announced in May and extend his career until at least the end of next year’s Tour de France."


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@Iamczecksy Just FYI you still have a Yes limit order at 19%. If it hits any time in the next few months it's probably because he's had a life-altering incident or something. Might be safer to close it.

predicts YES

Related question:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Anyone who wants to participate in this market should anticipate several critical points. If there is going to be a Yes resolution, these are some things you should see along the way:

  • Between now and January, he should be announced to have signed a contract with a team for 2024. If that does not happen by January, the odds should fall.

  • Between January and June, he should participate in some number of races with his 2024 team.

  • By the middle of June, there should be clear indications (from him, his team, etc.) that he will be selected to the TDF team

  • By the last week of June, he should be in the official team announcement

  • On 29 June 2024 he should start in the first stage

Some things that could go wrong along the way:

  • No contract signed

  • Poor performance leads to non-selection

  • Injury, illness, crash, etc. leads to non-selection

  • The team he signs for is suspended from racing due to having two anti-doping cases in a 12 month period and the whole team is not allowed to start the Tour de France

  • The team's 2024 World Tour license is denied, delayed, or otherwise disrupted

I think there are additional things that belong on the "could go wrong" list....this is just a start.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@Eliza I'd be much more worried about him not going to the TdF if Astana didn't look like an average Continental Team. Even if he doesn't win a stage, he'll score more UCI points than the rest of the team.

predicts NO

@Lion I'm thinking along those lines too, for Astana is a no-brainer to keep him; they don't have much going on right now, no competitive sprinters nor GC guys

predicts NO

@Lion There is a real, nonzero chance for the last two bullet points on the Things Go Wrong list. Astana has had multiple close calls with doping cases in recent years and they have had multiple instances of "not paying their riders on time". From the evidence I've seen, they have failed to live up to the standards required for WT license renewal multiple times, but for whatever reason are given a continual pass by the UCI.

Cav really seems to buck the trend around riders getting little attention unless they're winning. Remco got maybe 1/4 of the attention he had going into the Vuelta after losing so much time, even as he won stages and the KOM jersey. Even if Cav doesn't win a stage he seems like a pretty decent ROI in terms of coverage for Astana.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I'll buy some Yes.

But not at 50%.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Eliza I was willing to buy yes as well, but closer to 20%, I see you picked 25%

@Iamczecksy I'll put it below 50% so that you guys are more incentivized to bet YES