Will either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024? | Manifold

Will either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?

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resolved Jul 21

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YES

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Resolves YES if Pogacar or Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

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Should be somewhere between 95% and 97% I guess. There is some correlated risk like if one does a DQ-able offense to knock the other out of the race, or they bring each other down on a dangerous descent.

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