Resolves YES if Pogacar or Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2024-tour-de-franc)

Yes — resolved on Jul 21, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

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Will either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?

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resolved Jul 21

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if Pogacar or Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

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Should be somewhere between 95% and 97% I guess. There is some correlated risk like if one does a DQ-able offense to knock the other out of the race, or they bring each other down on a dangerous descent.

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