Who will win the 2024 Tour de France General Classification (Yellow Jersey)?
Jul 22
Jonas Vingegaard
Tadej Pogacar
Primoz Roglic
Remco Evenepoel
Juan Ayuso
Sepp Kuss
Adam Yates

The list of recent winners:

2023: Jonas Vingegaard
2022: Jonas Vingegaard
2021: Tadej Pogacar
2020: Tadej Pogacar
2019: Egan Bernal
2018: Geraint Thomas

I will add more information to this later when we know more about the race. There is definitely enough known about the potential competitors to start a market now, though.

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@JCE Your link doesn't work :(

bought Ṁ80 Jonas Vingegaard YES

@JCE Thanks, I was in full panic mode because I thought Pogi crashed or sth like this happened

@Lion Yea sorry, just a crazy opener. I haven’t found the full profile yet, looks like it finishes flat but could be a wild day

@JCE Yeah, this stage will be on fire. Finally people see how great the Tour could be if it was the Giro ;) https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1754917666131673191

bought Ṁ2,000 of Tadej Pogacar NO

This questions is becoming more intresting with @Yuna . I think Yuna changes my mind to I love bots in sports markets.

@Lion I have very much enjoyed betting against Yuna, myself.

@Eliza and @Lion Yuna is happy to hear that 😊

bought Ṁ10 of Jonas Vingegaard YES

@Yuna Do you share which data source you use or at least some insider knowledge? In my eyes some bets seem a little bit off compared to the money betting websites. Especially Vingegard (65% vs. 48%), Roglic (22% vs. 10%), Remco (14% vs. 9%). Pogacar on the other end seems fine. (Not in my eyes, but that's the problem of the sides, not mine.) (https://www.bettingodds.com/cycling/tour-de-france). Even by removing the profit marging for the main competition, I don't come to the same conclusionas as you. (I ignored the side characters which are always way overpriced, which isn't a secret.) And I expect you to have some profit margin as well as these betting sides, so a 1:1 comparision seems to be fair, especially beacuse they are quite different to each other as well.


Without commenting on Yuma's strategies, some general points:

  1. It is really hard to put people below 1% on their correct value on Manifold. That usually results in some gaps for at least one more likely candidate.

  2. Real money betting sites for this kind of thing are not necessarily going to reflect the best opinions right now. On Manifold we get 4% back on our long term positions every day. On real gambling sites, your money might be tied up for 6 months. Even if a line is wrong by a considerable amount, it might not be worthwhile to lock up your money that long.

@Eliza Okay, I probably could have explained this a little bit better. I'm "complaining" (actually I like it) about her buying No shares. I don't have much clue on these betting sites, but as far as I know, you can only buy win-shares and not bet on them to loose.

Yuna is buying Vingegaard NO at 48% while betting sites offer a 20:13 payout on him (which transfers to a 65% probability minus whatever they keep as margin (which is quite big tbh), but I don't know why Yuna transfers this to a probabilty below 48% - Yuna's margin). In conclusion, Yuna expects Vingegards probability to win the Tour let's say 43% (with a 5% margin) which I don't agree on based on the data. The same with Roglic, she buys NO at 10% while the sites put him on 22% (minus their margin).

These betting sides have quite big margins on underdogs (because they still can sell it that way), i. e. Ayuso 1:12 is a total ripoff. Regarding your argument number 2, I think Manifold is quite effectiv in pricing them compared to those odds. (4% i. e. is still too high, but I won't buy No-shares, because it isn't worth it for me to lock up that Mana).

@Lion 0 insider knowledge. I'm scraping bookmaker websites like the ones aggregated on bettingodds.com. I won't share exactly which because that would make it too easy to exploit Yuna 😅
But as you've explained, the bookmakers have a spread. If the real prob is say 50%, they might only give you 60% (lower payout). In other words bookmaker odds usually add up to >100% for one event. I try to adjust them to 100% and might be off on that adjustment. You're welcome to bet against that 😉

Also, some bets might have different odds from those because I'm covering a position. And some bets I don't take because my maximum exposure is reached.
So a market I bet on doesn't have to reflect what my model says.

@Yuna Wow, thanks, that was way more insight than I expected to get. In my opinion, you're weighting these overrated underdogs too much in the overall 100%. I assumed you wouldn't, but that explains a lot. (probably would be an easy fix to group the top4 to a total of 90%)

btw: Are you planning an expansion on cycling markets? A lot of them would really appreciate it, especially those smaller markets often don't have someone to bet against. (i. e. nearly all women markets could benefit as there aren't many participants and you could increase your profit margin on these a little bit, because there isn't any competition at all)

@Lion If I find odds then maybe. But cycling in general and women's cycling in particular seems hard and unlikely.

bought Ṁ5 of Adam Yates YES

@Lion On many womens races we have a good chance to offer the very best forecast available anywhere in the world. That's why we make the markets. Now prove we are good at it...

soldṀ26Primoz Roglic YES

@chrisjbillington Don't despair, Roglic forever.

@Eliza I would bet on Roglic never winning a Tour.

I'm not so sure if Tadej even starts the Tour, maybe he'll have some other goals. Related question:

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