This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from https://companiesmarketcap.com/ on January 1st 2025 at 12:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.)
This question will not be affected by any name changes.
If companies merge with another company valued at least 20% of their own market cap, they will be resolved as "N/A" and newly created. However, if they acquire a company or merge with smaller companies, this will not affect the resolution criteria.
In the case of a split, both splits will count for the future of the question, but the larger split will be checked at the end of the year. For example, if Meta splits into Facebook and Instagram and neither of these two companies is in the Top 10, the question will resolve as NO.
I will resolve any company created multiple times "N/A". Any company not in the Top 50 [updated January 2nd 2024, before Top 100] at the time of creation according to https://companiesmarketcap.com/ will be resolved as "N/A", as I suspect these are created to manipulate league results, unlesss you can make a good point in the comments. [added January 2nd 2024]
This question will close on December 31, 2024, at 23:59 UTC.
If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ625 | |
| 2 | Ṁ612 | |
| 3 | Ṁ473 | |
| 4 | Ṁ274 | |
| 5 | Ṁ146 |
People are also trading
@TimothyJohnson5c16
Hmm. How about:
Broadcom 9th $1.07T 22%
Berkshire Hathaway 11th $0.995T 78%
@ChristopherRandles I think I fixed it? those 2 and TSMC must share last two spots, so roughly 66.7% each?
Edit: I don't expect WMT or any others to shoot up 25% like AVGO today, but who knows with TSLA at a similar distance lol.
@deagol Yeah AVGO today = 4th Q results. Probably not many more quarterly results of relevant companies in last half of Dec.
64% 67% much more plausible. Still apparently wrong way around for position in table but there are more considerations like volatility. Perhaps AVGO will drop back a bit after such a surge.
@JimAusman According to the description and the estimated value of Open AI right now (beetween $ 29 and 100 billion), I'm thinking about resolving this to N/A. The trades show that no one (expect bots) really belive in this right now. If anyone can give me good arguments why it should stay, please make your point.
"Any company not in the Top 100 at the time of creation according to https://companiesmarketcap.com/ will be resolved as "N/A", as I suspect these are created to manipulate league results."
@Lion After the discussion on Manifold and Discord around this question (https://manifold.markets/Samuel/will-openai-be-valued-more-than-75) and according to the description I resolve this one N/A for now. I might add it in the future after an IPO or similar scenario.