[Super Tuesday] In which GOP state primary will Nikki Haley receive the highest percentage of votes on Super Tuesday?
resolved Mar 10
North Carolina

The relevant states' primaries are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia.

Utah holds a caucus and is therefore excluded.

The relevant criterion is the GOP state primary with the highest percentage of votes for Nikki Haley. I will resolve this market on results from at least two sources, most likely using AP News, WSJ, and NYT. If there are any concerns or if the results are close, I will attempt to verify with local authorities.

If Haley drops out before Super Tuesday, this question will be marked as 'N/A'.

I reserve the right to extend the closing date if necessary.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question.

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It is no longer possible for Haley to achieve 50.2% in California or Colorado, so this question resolves to Vermont. Proof see pinned comment

bought Ṁ1,000 Vermont YES

@Lion This can resolve now, right?

@PlasmaBallin I'm actually waiting for California. But since this can take days to come and you are a mod, I would resolve these if you were unresolving in that very unlikely case.

bought Ṁ50 Virginia YES

There's a new poll from Virginia that contradicts all the previous polls: https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_feb_2024.

Including Democrats who might vote in the Republican primary, Trump is only ahead 51-43.

The question is how many of those Democrats actually show up for Haley.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I link 538 here (they have included this poll), there is a pretty big spread in general https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/virginia/

@Lion Oh, 538 is where I found it. They reported two different numbers - 51-43 for likely voters, and 75-15 for Republicans. I'm guessing the final result will be somewhere in that range, but it's a big range.

@Lion I can see why you said forecasting primaries is more fun 😊

@TimothyJohnson5c16 sorry,you're right. I've mixed this up with the poll that Haley shared on X https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1763706304021835947 But it's a little bit suspicious in general.


@SemioticRivalry The description says Utah has a caucus instead, so it's excluded.

Based on the calendar here, Utah has a primary on the Democratic side, but a caucus on the Republican side: The Complete 2024 Presidential Primary Schedule by State - Election Central (uspresidentialelectionnews.com).

@SemioticRivalry As @TimothyJohnson5c16 correctly pointed out and my description, I've decided to exclude Utah because the Republicans hold a caucus during the 'Neighborhood Caucus Night' with some strict rules that are in no way comparable to a primary. I'm providing the website link here for you to take a look. I don't see any reason to compare this caucus with any primary due to its different approach and rules. Therefore, I never intended to include it in this question.

@PlasmaBallin I dislike your approach and immediatly creating a question about me despite the fact that I've even stated in the description. If you've a problem with me or my markets, please comment or DM me directly. I appreciate it that you took it down.

Everyone is allowed to disagree with my opinion on the caucus/primary comparable opinion, but than argue on facts please.

btw: I've even created a question around this for Michigan and that these have different results.

@Lion tbc I don't think anyone was being hostile, it was just a question

@Lion Yeah, I'm sorry about making the market. I forgot that Utah was already stated to be excluded in the description, so when the original comment here was made, I thought it was a mistake that it had been left out. But it turned out to actually be my mistake, and I probably shouldn't have made a market like that regardless without asking you first.

@PlasmaBallin Thank you ❤

bought Ṁ10 Minnesota YES

MN has an open primary, and was the only state that Rubio won in 2016.

Copying some relevant snippets from https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746 about the states where she seems to have the best shot:

  • She first held two rallies in Michigan in advance of that state’s primary. She then headed to Minnesota for a Minneapolis event. Both upper Midwestern states are known for their relatively moderate politics and have no party registration, allowing independents and stray Democrats to cast Republican ballots.

  • Haley jetted to Colorado this week, another moderate state with a high level of educational attainment that allows registered independents to cast Republican ballots.

  • Then Haley streaks to Utah, which holds a caucus on Super Tuesday. That appears to be a strange choice until one recalls that Mormons strongly opposed Trump in 2016. He finished third in that year’s GOP contest, garnering only 14 percent.

  • After that, she’s back to the East Coast where she holds rallies in North Carolina, Virginia, and the nation’s capital. D.C. is probably her best bet to win because it’s the headquarters of the anti-Trump GOP elite. Rubio and John Kasich combined to get nearly 73 percent here in 2016. If Haley can’t win here, she can’t win anywhere.

  • Her final scheduled events are in especially telling locations. One will unfold in Needham, Massachusetts. Needham makes Centennial look like a slum from the wrong side of the tracks. Its median household income exceeds $200,000 and over 80 percent of adults have a four-year degree or better.

  • Then comes a rally in Vermont, where moderate Phil Scott is one of the few Republican governors to have endorsed her.

  • Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont and Maine all allow independents to vote in their Super Tuesday contests and typically prefer more moderate Republicans. Haley will be betting they will make a final stand despite the odds against her.